TechLead, whose real name is Patrick Shyu, is a popular YouTuber and social media personality known for his content related to technology, software engineering, and career advice. Before gaining fame on YouTube, he worked as a software engineer at tech giants like Google and Facebook. His experience in these top-tier tech companies forms the basis of much of his content.
On his YouTube channel, TechLead presents a mix of educational content, personal experiences, and opinions about the tech industry, software engineering careers, and the lifestyle of tech professionals. He is known for his straightforward, often humorous style. However, it’s important to note that his views and advice are based on his personal experiences and opinions and may not always represent the broader perspectives of the tech community.
TechLead also discusses topics related to personal finance and cryptocurrency, offering insights based on his experiences and observations in these areas. His approach to these subjects is similar to his tech content — direct, often laced with humor, and based on his personal viewpoint.
In a recent video, TechLead focused on the potential impact of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) approvals by the U.S. SEC on the cryptocurrency’s market dynamics.
Bitcoin’s Current State and Past Performance
TechLead reflected on his previous predictions about Bitcoin, noting a significant price increase of about 100% since his last call. He highlighted his successful forecast and decision to sell Ethereum at that time, pointing out that Bitcoin had outperformed Ethereum by approximately 40% over the past year.
The Collapse of FTX and Its Impact
He discussed the collapse of FTX in November of the previous year, which coincided with the bottoming of Bitcoin’s price. TechLead suggested that the collapse led to a realization among investors that they were not actually purchasing Bitcoin through FTX, as the platform was misusing customer funds. This realization, according to him, contributed to the actual buying of Bitcoin, driving its price up.
The Prospect of Bitcoin Spot ETFs
TechLead emphasized the significance of the upcoming deadlines for Bitcoin spot ETFs. He noted that the final deadline for the first ETF, particularly the ARK 21Shares Spot Bitcoin ETF, is set for 10 January 2024, and the SEC must decide by then whether to move forward with it. He speculated that the approval of one ETF could lead to the simultaneous approval of multiple ETFs, with 12 currently in motion.
He presented a risk-reward analysis, suggesting that the upside potential of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval could be significant, potentially leading to a 4x increase in Bitcoin’s price, similar to the impact seen with the gold ETF in 2004. Conversely, he argued that the downside risk of rejection or delay by the SEC is relatively low, as it would only maintain the status quo.
Long-Term Holding and Institutional Interest
TechLead pointed out that two-thirds of all Bitcoin has not moved in over a year, indicating a strong base of long-term holders. He also mentioned the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, comparing it to gold and referring to it as “exponential gold.”
The Future of Bitcoin and Spot Bitcoin ETFs
In his conclusion, TechLead expressed confidence in the eventual approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, citing the increasing adoption of crypto and the presence of financial tools for Bitcoin purchases. He also mentioned the global interest in Bitcoin ETFs, with countries like Canada, Germany, and Brazil already exploring or implementing them.
On 20 November 2023, Dan Morehead, the Founder and Managing Partner of Pantera Capital, shared his thoughts on the anticipated introduction of a spot Bitcoin ETF and its potential effects on the sector. He conveyed his thoughts through a post on the social media platform X (previously known as Twitter) and elaborated on them in the latest issue of Pantera Capital’s “Blockchain Letter.”
Morehead drew on the classic Wall Street saying, “Buy the rumor, sell the news,” to explain historical trends in the cryptocurrency market. He pointed to two significant events as examples: the debut of CME futures on December 18, 2017, and Coinbase’s public listing on April 14, 2021. Both instances coincided with peaks in Bitcoin’s value, followed by notable downturns.
Morehead presented the case that the introduction of a Bitcoin ETF would be a different scenario compared to past events like Bitcoin futures and Coinbase’s IPO. He argued that these earlier developments didn’t significantly enhance actual access to Bitcoin. However, a Bitcoin ETF, particularly one managed by a heavyweight like BlackRock, would represent a fundamental shift in how investors can engage with Bitcoin.
Morehead expressed a firm belief in the beneficial impact of a Bitcoin ETF. He anticipated that it would broaden Bitcoin’s investor base and substantially increase buying activities. He predicted the imminent approval of several spot Bitcoin ETFs, expecting this to happen in the coming months rather than years. Morehead viewed this as a critical step in Bitcoin’s recognition as a legitimate asset class.
Morehead likened the introduction of a Bitcoin ETF to the historical evolution of commodities and emerging markets into recognized asset classes. He believed that the existence of a Bitcoin ETF would be a crucial milestone in blockchain’s journey towards mainstream asset classification, suggesting that not investing in Bitcoin once an ETF is available would be equivalent to effectively shorting the asset.
Morehead’s perspective can be encapsulated in his revised phrase, “Buy the rumor, buy the news.”
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