Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has issued a cautionary note, suggesting that numerous altcoins are headed for another downturn within this year, with little hope for recovery. In a recent video update, Cowen shared these insights with his 787K YouTube subscribers, warning of an “altcoin reckoning” that many digital assets may not survive.
Cowen expressed a nuanced view on the future of the altcoin market. While he acknowledged that the market could eventually rebound, he emphasized that many of the current altcoins might not be part of that resurgence. He speculated that some might reach new highs, but a significant number are likely to stagnate or decline. Cowen painted a scenario where the altcoin market could hover around the $323.5 billion mark for some time, possibly retreating to the $290 billion range, before experiencing a more severe downturn, which he referred to as the “depression phase.” This phase, according to Cowen, could last until 2024.
The analyst also touched upon the role of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies in the altcoin market’s future. He anticipates a “renaissance” for altcoins, but only after the Federal Reserve changes its current stance on monetary policies. Cowen expects this policy shift to occur next year, although he did not rule out the possibility of it happening this year. However, he was skeptical that any immediate change in Federal Reserve policies would lead to a quick recovery for the altcoin market. Even if the Federal Reserve were to adjust its policies this year, Cowen believes the impact would be minimal, as the change would likely be very small.
Last month, in a recent conversation with Crypto Banter’s Ran Neuner, Benjamin Cowen posited that the ETH/BTC trading pair might see a decline of more than half from its present value of 0.063 BTC, which is approximately $1,828. Cowen’s forecast stems from his analysis that the ETH/BTC pair is displaying a bearish double-top formation on its monthly chart. This technical indicator implies that traders are likely to exchange their Ethereum for Bitcoin during market upswings. Cowen characterized the ongoing trend as a “significant redistribution phase,” akin to trends seen in past market cycles.
Historical data reveals that the ETH/BTC pair often experiences a downward trend from June to December. Cowen foresees the pair potentially plummeting to a low of 0.03 BTC, or around $871. He speculated that once the ETH/BTC value reaches this point, it could signal the conclusion of the altcoin downturn.
Cowen also pointed out that a pullback in the stock market could catalyze this sharp decline in the ETH/BTC pair. He drew a comparison with the situation in late 2017 when the ETH/BTC value fell to 0.022 BTC. A subsequent decline to this level in 2018 signaled the end of the downturn for many altcoins. Cowen indicated that a similar sequence of events might be in the works, with a possible secondary drop to 0.049 BTC.
Additionally, Cowen warned that even after hitting this low, the ETH/BTC pair might not have reached its bottom and could decline further. He suggested that a seasonal adjustment in the S&P 500 index might serve as the catalyst for this continued downturn.
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